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時(shi)間飛逝(shi)，2022年(nian)已經走完(wan)三個(ge)季度，世界(jie)新造(zao)船(chuan)市(shi)場(chang)也(ye)錄得了(le)的前三季度成(cheng)績。1-9月，世界(jie)新造(zao)船(chuan)市(shi)場(chang)成(cheng)交與(yu)完(wan)工同比(bi)回(hui)落，手持(chi)訂單保持(chi)增長，預期四(si)(si)季度完(wan)工量會(hui)繼續保持(chi)較(jiao)高(gao)產出，而成(cheng)交量要追(zhui)趕去年(nian)的高(gao)度將有(you)一定難度。今年(nian)新造(zao)船(chuan)市(shi)場(chang)的變化逐漸(jian)清晰(xi)，下游航運市(shi)場(chang)也(ye)在發(fa)生結構性的調(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)。回(hui)顧前三季度新造(zao)船(chuan)市(shi)場(chang)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)情(qing)況，要在變化中(zhong)“找規律”，在調(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)中(zhong)“抓機遇”，為四(si)(si)季度及明年(nian)市(shi)場(chang)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)做(zuo)好預判。

市場指標“兩降一升”

2022年1-9月，世界(jie)新造(zao)船(chuan)市(shi)場成交6053萬(wan)(wan)DWT、3192萬(wan)(wan)CGT，同比(bi)分別下降40.5%、18.6%；完(wan)工交付6060萬(wan)(wan)DWT、2149萬(wan)(wan)CGT，同比(bi)分別減少8.9%、14.6%；截至(zhi)9月底，世界(jie)手持訂單2.14億DWT、1.04億CGT，同比(bi)分別增長9.7%、40.5%。

從數(shu)據看，前(qian)三(san)季度(du)新(xin)船成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)(jiao)量(liang)與完工(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)付量(liang)均出(chu)現(xian)不同程度(du)的(de)下滑，兩者(zhe)情況有所不同。今年(nian)(nian)前(qian)三(san)季度(du)的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)(jiao)量(liang)雖(sui)然下滑，但仍比(bi)(bi)十三(san)五(wu)(wu)同期高出(chu)68.2%。而完工(gong)交(jiao)(jiao)付量(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)十三(san)五(wu)(wu)同期減(jian)少17.6%，則是(shi)由于今年(nian)(nian)疫情、高溫、罷工(gong)等影響到中韓(han)兩大生產國導致產出(chu)滯后。好(hao)消息是(shi)，不論成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)(jiao)與交(jiao)(jiao)付，9月份(fen)當月的(de)數(shu)據環比(bi)(bi)都出(chu)現(xian)較(jiao)(jiao)大幅度(du)反彈，以CGT計(ji)當月成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)(jiao)與交(jiao)(jiao)付環比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)41%和105%，或(huo)許對全年(nian)(nian)還可以有些期待。

氣體船的市場地位進一步鞏固

前三季度世界新承接船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)結構發(fa)生顯著(zhu)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)，以(yi)大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)LNG運(yun)輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)的氣體(ti)(ti)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成(cheng)為(wei)今年引領市(shi)場(chang)(chang)增(zeng)(zeng)長的主(zhu)(zhu)力船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)。1-9月，氣體(ti)(ti)運(yun)輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)、集(ji)裝箱船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)兩(liang)種船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)成(cheng)交(jiao)份額(e)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)較(jiao)多，分別為(wei)36%和32%；其它主(zhu)(zhu)力船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)合計不到32%。同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)，氣體(ti)(ti)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)漲幅達(da)到72%，其它船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)（含PCTC、工程船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)等）同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)小(xiao)幅萎縮0.8%，油、散(san)、集(ji)、客(ke)其它四類主(zhu)(zhu)力船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)則(ze)出現不同(tong)(tong)程度萎縮。具體(ti)(ti)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)成(cheng)交(jiao)中(zhong)，LNG運(yun)輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)增(zeng)(zeng)長152%，大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)LNG運(yun)輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成(cheng)交(jiao)量達(da)到130艘；汽車(che)運(yun)輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)同(tong)(tong)樣表現突出，增(zeng)(zeng)幅達(da)到30%。隨(sui)著(zhu)世界新造(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)加(jia)快復蘇，影響(xiang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)的主(zhu)(zhu)力船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)結構也在變(bian)化(hua)(hua)，氣體(ti)(ti)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)等新晉主(zhu)(zhu)力船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)的決定作用(yong)更加(jia)突出。

綠色動力船舶份額持續升高

前三(san)季度以雙(shuang)燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)為主的綠色動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)繼續獲得市場青睞。截(jie)至(zhi)9月(yue)底，新接(jie)訂單中綠色動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)市場份(fen)額（艘數計(ji)）從2021年的26%提升(sheng)至(zhi)41%，運力(li)(li)(li)占比則突破50%。其(qi)中，采用(yong)的綠色動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)形(xing)式仍以LNG與傳統燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)的雙(shuang)燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)居多(duo)。值(zhi)得注意的是，今年甲(jia)醇(chun)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)明顯(xian)增多(duo)，到9月(yue)底已(yi)經有至(zhi)少(shao)23艘新船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)訂單確定(ding)采用(yong)甲(jia)醇(chun)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)(li)，還有一些船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)也預留了甲(jia)醇(chun)燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)改裝(zhuang)設計(ji)（Methanol-ready），其(qi)中不(bu)乏大型(xing)集(ji)裝(zhuang)箱船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)等主力(li)(li)(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)。一線船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)東在新船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)的布局(ju)中利(li)用(yong)綠色甲(jia)醇(chun)等碳中和燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)的態度積極，馬(ma)士基、達飛等大型(xing)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)東的示范作用(yong)也會帶動(dong)(dong)更多(duo)新型(xing)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)用(yong)低碳燃(ran)(ran)料(liao)加速投(tou)入商業(ye)應用(yong)。

中韓兩國繼續領跑

2022年1-9月，中國(guo)承接新造(zao)船訂(ding)單(dan)1541萬CGT，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)全球市(shi)場(chang)份(fen)額的48.3%，位居(ju)世(shi)界第一(yi)；韓(han)(han)國(guo)承接新造(zao)船訂(ding)單(dan)1254萬CGT，占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)全球市(shi)場(chang)份(fen)額的39.3%，位列第二(er)；中韓(han)(han)兩國(guo)新船成(cheng)交合(he)計市(shi)場(chang)份(fen)額從2021年底的82.4%進一(yi)步攀升至(zhi)87.6%。中韓(han)(han)造(zao)船集(ji)團(tuan)排名(ming)也位居(ju)前列，全球手持訂(ding)單(dan)前10名(ming)的造(zao)船集(ji)團(tuan)中，中國(guo)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)據5席，韓(han)(han)國(guo)占(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)據3席，日本與意大利各1席。

展望全年

造(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)完(wan)工(gong)有(you)望(wang)提速(su)，市(shi)場(chang)成(cheng)交難超去年(nian)(nian)。前三(san)季度(du)(du)的(de)全球造(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)完(wan)工(gong)量僅為(wei)2021年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)的(de)67.5%，月度(du)(du)交付均值低于往(wang)年(nian)(nian)均值，四季度(du)(du)是全球造(zao)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)業趕進度(du)(du)的(de)最后(hou)時機(ji)。從(cong)9月的(de)交付情(qing)況看，預計(ji)全年(nian)(nian)完(wan)工(gong)量有(you)望(wang)達到(dao)3000萬CGT，更(geng)進一步也有(you)希望(wang)追平2021年(nian)(nian)3183萬CGT的(de)目(mu)標。新船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成(cheng)交方面，前三(san)季度(du)(du)新船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成(cheng)交量為(wei)2021年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)的(de)66.4%，如果四季度(du)(du)僅以今年(nian)(nian)形勢(shi)較好的(de)氣體船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)、集裝(zhuang)箱船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)以及汽車運輸船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)等船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)型繼(ji)續放量很難支(zhi)撐(cheng)全年(nian)(nian)市(shi)場(chang)達到(dao)去年(nian)(nian)的(de)高度(du)(du)。未來市(shi)場(chang)的(de)發展要看油、散船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)隊的(de)調整情(qing)況，兩者目(mu)前手持訂(ding)單占運力的(de)比例都(dou)僅在5%上(shang)下，很可能是支(zhi)撐(cheng)明年(nian)(nian)市(shi)場(chang)的(de)主(zhu)力。

下(xia)游(you)市場(chang)(chang)加速分(fen)化，新形勢醞釀新變化。2022年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)克拉克森綜合運(yun)費連續(xu)4個月(yue)(yue)下(xia)滑(hua)，降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)至3.55萬美(mei)元/天，較5月(yue)(yue)最高點下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)18.5%，是自2020年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)以(yi)來首次(ci)出現同比下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。同比變化中，液貨船(chuan)舶繼續(xu)保(bao)持快速增(zeng)長，原(yuan)油船(chuan)漲(zhang)幅(fu)達(da)到12.8倍，成(cheng)品油船(chuan)增(zeng)長6倍，大型(xing)LNG運(yun)輸(shu)船(chuan)增(zeng)長220%；另外(wai)，汽車運(yun)輸(shu)船(chuan)增(zeng)長200%。相反，集(ji)運(yun)與干散貨運(yun)則出現較大波動(dong)，集(ji)裝箱(xiang)船(chuan)運(yun)費下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)22%，散貨船(chuan)運(yun)費下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)54%。在(zai)影(ying)(ying)響新造(zao)船(chuan)市場(chang)(chang)的(de)眾(zhong)多(duo)因素中，航(hang)運(yun)市場(chang)(chang)一直是影(ying)(ying)響新造(zao)船(chuan)市場(chang)(chang)發展的(de)重要“風向標”，船(chuan)型(xing)收益更是重要之重。下(xia)游(you)航(hang)運(yun)市場(chang)(chang)“主角”的(de)轉變也會給新造(zao)船(chuan)市場(chang)(chang)帶來“潛(qian)移默化”的(de)影(ying)(ying)響。